CHINA AND TAIWAN-WHAT NOW

CHINA AND TAIWAN

China is People’s Republic of China (PRC).
Taiwan is Republic of China (ROC).

This miner difference in name makes it clear that Both are same. Same language Mandarin is spoken in Taiwan as in China. A miner difference of accent is there.

No matter how you get influenced by Western Projection, Reality is, People of Taiwan and China are same. They both have same ethnicity, same culture.

A vital difference that is preventing Taiwan to become a part of China is DEMOCRACY. Respect, Equality, Dignity is available to all in Taiwan unlike China.

ONE CHINA POLICY

Though Taiwan is not under control of China, however China considers it as it’s integral part of the main land China under its ONE CHINA POLICY. The One China Policy states that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is only one sovereign state under the name China, with the PRC serving as the sole legitimate government of that China, and Taiwan is part of China. It is opposed to the idea that there are two states holding the name “China”,

CHINA AND TAIWAN : HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

In year 1500, the island name was llha Fermosa meaning Beautiful island and was frequently visited by Chinese merchants and fishermen. In 1624, Dutch East India company started grain production employing Chinese labourers. It was Ming Dynasty that drove out Dutch from Taiwan establishing their rule in the year 1662. The invasion continued and Qing Dynasty took control of the island declaring it as a province.In 1895, Japanese forces conquered the island. However Chinese revolutionary forces took it under the control in 1912. Same year 1912 ROC was founded in China.

Post World war second, through Cairo declaration stated the restoration of Fermosa(Taiwan) and the Pescadores(the penghu island) to the Republic of China (Taiwan).
In 1949, ROC Government relocated to Taiwan.

The United Nations General Assembly Resolution passed in 19971, declared China to be sole Representative for both CHINA. This made ROC (Taiwan) to quit United Nations.In 1991, however, Taiwan got back their Representation in United Nations.

The first Presidential election, held in 1996, saw KMT getting more than 54% votes
Taiwan became a member of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation in 1991 and member of World Trade Organization in the year 2002..(Reference-https://www.taiwan.gov.tw)

CHINA AND TAIWAN : United States Approach

After Japan ended war and renounced all its title,in Taiwan, through a treaty in 1951,ROC (Taiwan), Taiwan signed a mutual defense agreement with United States.

In 1972, during Richard Nixon visit, US China Shanghai Commiunique was issued stating United States acknowledges China one and Taiwan as a part of China.

In 1979, Jimmy Carter Government established diplomatic relation through second communique, acknowledging One China Principle.The Carter Administration annulled a treaty that guaranteed on taking care of Taiwan defense against main land China.Here, Americans were looking for support from China in Afghanistan against their fight with erstwhile Soviet Union.
However, as Carter administration had not obtained approval of congress, pertaining to nullification of Taiwan defense act, the US Supreme Court dismissed it.This implied that Taiwan would be considered as equal to other country.

Regan Administration, in 1982, agreed to reduce Arms sales to Taiwan.But it was not in support to One China Policy. In 2004,James Kelly made a distinction between China’s version of One China Policy and United States understanding of it.

CHINA AND TAIWAN : Indian Perspective

India has a foreign policy that wants to have a happy and peaceful relations with all its neighbors.Initially India supported One China Policy. Tibet Autonomous region becoming a part of China was based on that understanding.
India, soon, realized the malefic intention of its neighbor. Disturbance in Arunachal Pradesh, case of stapled visa, frequent violations of Line of Actual Control (LOAC) were adequate to make India change its stance.

PRESENT SITUATION

SOUTH CHINA SEA, is a strategic region on which China is seeking control. The Area has untapped reserves of oil and gas. Many other strong economic countries like Indonesia, Japan, Philippines, Brunai, Taiwan and Vietnam are in this region claiming their control..
China is creating artificial islands and established a military base on one of the South China sea Island.

WHY CHINA WILL BE EXTRA CAUTIOUS BEFORE ATTACKING

China is an important ally to Russia and will look for help and support in case it shows aggression. Russia Ukraine conflict has its impact on Russia.

The zero Covid policy has brought lockdown in several Chinese cities compelling economic slowdown.

Real Estate bubble burst is another significant factor in putting economic pressure on China.The middle class has borrowed heavily and being unable to pay has put tremendous pressure on Chinese Real Estate Market.

Even a recent visit to Taiwan by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi drew plenty of speculations regarding Chinese attack, but the military drills by China to threaten Taiwan shows that China is considering many factors